Air cargo profits take off
November 10, 2010
Air cargo profits take off - Article from Logistics Management
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Transportation cost predicted to increase accross all modes. Supply Chain Management solutions will be the buzz words for the next few years.
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Supply Chain Management: Surge in U.S. chip sales confirms forecast
By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
July 06, 2010
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported today that worldwide sales of semiconductors in May were $24.7 billion, a sequential increase of 4.5 percent from April when sales were $23.6 billion and a year-on-year increase of 47.6 percent from May 2009 when sales were $16.7 billion. As expected, the year-on-year growth rate declined slightly from the 50.4 percent reported in April. All monthly sales numbers represent a three-month moving average.
“Global sales of semiconductors in May reached a new high and remain on pace to reach the SIA forecast of 28.4 percent growth to $290.5 billion in 2010,” said SIA President George Scalise. “Chip sales have been buoyed by strength in sales of personal computers, cell phones, corporate information technology, industrial applications, and autos. Unit sales of personal computers are now expected to grow by 20 percent this year and cell phone unit sales are predicted to be up 10 to 12 percent over 2009 levels.
“Emerging markets, including China and India, are fueling sales of computation and communications products,” Scalise continued. “The automotive market is also slowly recovering after several years of weak sales. Demand from the corporate information technology and industrial sectors that had pushed out replacement cycles during the global economic recession is beginning to come back.”
SIA once again noted that the industry year-on-year and sequential growth rates are likely to continue to slow during the second half of 2010. “Recent chip sales have shown robust demand, but the year-on-year growth rates also underscore the very depressed market conditions of the first half of 2009. Going forward, the year-on-year growth comparisons will reflect the industry recovery that gained momentum in the second half of last year.
“Growing concerns about issues such as government debt, declining consumer confidence, and pressures on government spending do not appear to have affected worldwide semiconductor sales to date, but given the semiconductor industry’s growing sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, these issues bear watching in the second half of 2010,” Scalise concluded.
About the Author
Patrick Burnson
Executive Editor
Patrick Burnson is executive editor for Logistics Management and Supply Chain Management Review magazines and web sites. Patrick is a widely-published writer and editor who has spent most of his career covering international trade, global logistics, and supply chain management. He lives and works in San Francisco, providing readers with a Pacific Rim perspective on industry trends and forecasts. You can reach him directly at pburnson@ehpub.com
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CSA2010 will have a significant effect on all motor carriers & operators
Please take the time to learn more about CSA 2010 at:
Or to take the Online Course please visit:
http://elearn.landstar.com/login/index.php
The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has rolled out CSA 2010 is to create a more efficient and effective way to monitor and levy enforcement against carriers of all sizes.
Beginning in 2010, ALL roadside violations (not just out of service violations) will be assessed against the carrier and operator.
Violations received will be placed into 6 categories that have been shown to cause crashes. These categories will be monitored on a federal and state level. If a specific category exceeds a predetermined threshold sanctions will be initiated against the carrier and driver to include fines, inability to transport hazardous materials, and ultimately (in the future) declaring the carrier unfit.
Violations a carrier receives will be assessed against the carrier for 24 months. Violations an operator receives at a roadside inspection will follow that operator for 36 months, regardless of which carrier the operator was with when the violation was received. Roadside performance becomes a part of the carrier's "report card" and the operator's "report card". CSA 2010 is scheduled for initial implementation November 30, 2010, with full implementation in 2011.
CSA 2010 will directly affect every interstate motor carrier
How can Shippers help?
Make sure cargo weight is correctly distributed (Violation = 21 CSA points)
Make sure sealed loads are properly blocked & braced (Violation = 36 CSA points)
Make sure
cargo weight is correctly distributed (Violation = 21 CSA points)
Make sure sealed loads are properly blocked & braced (Violation = 36 CSA points)
Make sure operator is able to load/unload in a timely manner (Violation = 21 CSA points) Hazardous Material Paperwork/Placards/Labels are compliant (Violation = 3 CSA points)
A survey of North American 3PLs in August show 3PLs’ gross revenues were down over 12 percent. Seventy-two percent of the companies said gross revenues were down for the year. Twenty-four percent said their revenues were up. Net revenues were reported as down by 5.9 percent. Here’s an overview of 2009 and where 3PLs are forecast to develop in the future.
By Richard Armstrong
3PL MARKET SEGMENTS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. Value-added warehousing (contract logistics) revenues declined by 2.8 percent. Indeed, some well-known VAWD 3PLs are reporting increased revenues for the year. GENCO’s business is up over 10 percent for the year. Chicago-based DSC is up seven percent. Companies with a heavy VAWD presence in automotive logistics have fared worse than most VAWDs.
Companies in the transportation management segments have uniformly seen reductions in revenue. Domestic transportation managers (including freight brokers) reported gross revenues down by nearly 13 percent. International transportation management (including freight forwarding) is down 16 percent. Especially hard hit has been air freight where volumes are running 20 to 25 percent less. Bucking the trend has been C.H. Robinson. CHR is expected to have a net revenue increase of three percent this year with a slight increase in net income. CHR dominates North American domestic transportation management with more than 20 percent of total revenue and 40 percent of EBIT.
Expeditors International, the leading freight forwarder in North America, reported gross revenues down 35 percent for the first six months of 2009. Net revenues were down 14 percent and net income was down by 18 percent. Peter Rose, Chairman of Expeditors has made a point of saying that no employees had been laid off. Salaries were down by just over 10 percent. Many top layer Expeditors’ personnel have compensation packages heavily loaded to bonuses. Much of the salary reduction has come from a drop in those bonuses.
Dedicated contract carriage has dropped by 15 percent for 2009 compared to 2008. Forecasts for industry leader J.B. Hunt are for 2009 DCC revenues to be down 17 percent.
Results by industry verticals indicate improvement in the second quarter over the first quarter. Automotive logistics improved to negative 18.5 percent in Q2 from negative 37.5 percent in the first quarter. These numbers reflect the collapse of GM and Chrysler as well as the reduced sales of other automakers. Michigan and Ontario and several of their “old line” 3PL operations have been hit particularly hard.
Automotive vertical leaders Penske Logistics and Ryder SCS both experienced large drops in revenue. Ryder SCS’s gross and net revenues were down by over 25 percent for the first half of the year.
Estimates are that Penske and Ryder’s reduced volumes will hold for the year. Food and beverage, as expected, has not been affected significantly. People gotta eat. Switching to generic brands doesn’t reduce the volumes transported and stored.
Retail and hi-tech have not shown any significant improvement through the first eight months. Most industry watchers expect volume improvements through the second half of 2009 but no significant rise in retail volumes for a normal consumer Christmas rush.
When asked how they expected their revenues to do for the 2009 fiscal year, the 3PL responses were primarily negative. The averages were for gross revenues to be down 8.1 percent and net revenues to be down 2.6 percent versus 2008.
With regard to fiscal year 2009, most 3PLs are ready to say, “I am glad that’s over.”
The Big Get Better
A small group of global supply chain managers (GSM) continue to expand their size and scale advantages, particularly in information technologybased solutions. For example, CEVA now has more than one dozen standardized global supply chain solutions. DHL’s Global Customer Solutions and Kuehne + Nagel’s Lead Logistics Solutions have developed along the same lines. Panalpina’s Panlogic Suite is a high powered tool for GSM. All of these 3PLs having increasing name brand recognition in search of the industry leader UPS SCS. Typically 4PL/LLP solutions designed by the major 3PLs cover trans-global order and inventory management from factories in Asia to customers in Europe and North America. Usually, supply chain design and management as practiced by the GSM will include control towers whose life blood is EDI and email messages covering transportation events, cross-docking, customs issues and warehouse management. That is, more supply chains are being managed by 4PLs who never see the freight.
Because of their size and scale development, the major 3PLs are increasingly more capable of being the sole lead logistics providers for medium size companies with less than $5 billion in revenue, the 4PL for Fortune 500 companies, or the LLP for a division of a Fortune 500 company. Often company divisions are structured on a continental basis. LLPs may vary by continent with LLP/3PL roles reversed in North America, Europe and Asia.
The biggest story of the year among GSM is the “carve out” purchase of IBM’s in-house supply chain management activities. The purchase price was $423 million. Seven hundred fifty IBM employees transferred to Geodis, the new 4PL. Geodis is a large French 3PL with $7 billion in turnover. It is owned by SNCF, the French railway which is owned by the government. Geodis now manages IBM’s $1.4 million logistics spend. Geodis in North America operates as a non-asset player and 4PL. As a result, ironies of coopertition result.
In July, Geodis issued a press release that DHL and Apple Express, in partnership acquired the warehouse logistics handling of the Geodis (IBM) service parts operations. Nineteen parts inventory locations are now being managed by Apple. DHL is managing two distribution center locations in Markham. The deal is multi-year and the transfer took place on October 3. Geodis employees were outsourced to Apple and DHL. The outsourcing from inception to completion took 18 months.
We expect outsourcing of major logistics operations to increase over the next few years as more companies fall behind the expanded capabilities of GSM.
Another major shift in the North American market has been the redesign of Ryder’s SCS. John Williford, president, led a significant expansion in Canada through the purchases of CRSA Logistics and Transpacific Container Terminal. Williford also led Ryder’s exit from Europe and South America. An expanded Asia base is in the works with plans to be more involved in Asia-North America retail supply chains.
Ryder will have significant established competition in the Asia-North America markets. Expeditors is the leading air and ocean forwarder and customs broker in this lane. Also there are a host of Chinese competitors, especially in ocean forwarding, who are interested in expanding to the United States. They are interested in buying American companies and controlling purchase order management.
What’s Next?
Economic recovery in North America should continue throughout 2010. By year end, 3PL activity should be close to 2008 levels.
Outsourcing to 3PLs should proceed at two to three times the increase in GDP. Watch for more big company “carve outs” like the IBM/Geodis deal.
Global supply chain solutions can be expected to become more frequent. The top 10 3PLs will grow stronger with these scale-based solutions. Smaller companies will find it increasingly hard to compete.
Security modifications should become a more accepted practice by year end. Perhaps technology will bring back quicker border crossings between Canada, the United States and Mexico.