Li & Fung says China low-cost era over

Li & Fung says China low-cost era over


Speaking at the Reuters Consumer and Retail Summit on Wednesday, President and Executive Director Bruce Rockowitz said China was still a dominant and unique player in the whole supply chain despite everything that was happening in the country, including growing costs.

"We believe that over the next few years there is not going to be a radical change in where people source from," he said, adding that other countries did not have and would never have the same scale as China.

Li & Fung, which this year expects to export $8 billion worth of goods from China and $1 billion of goods from Vietnam, said China would continue to be its biggest sourcing country, while Vietnam would be the second-largest.

"China is still a very dominant and unique player in the whole supply chain," Rockowitz said.

He said structural problems restricted India from becoming as dominant as China, while Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam would grow dramatically.

Li & Fung would switch to sourcing from China's cheaper interior as infrastructure had improved with high-speed railways linking remote areas and major Chinese cities, he said.

"Over the next few years, I think still 50 percent of our production will be based in China. I don't think it will change dramatically at all, it may go up or down 1 or 2 percentage points, but I think China is still the dominate supplier of the world," he said.

On the potential of China's consumer market, Rockowitz said: "It has not developed national retailing yet" as the top 100 retailers accounted for only 10 percent of total domestic retail.

LOW-COST ERA OVER

The last 20 years had been a deflationary environment for costs of goods and was unique because China added so much production very quickly to the world, depressing global prices of consumer goods, Rockowitz said.

"Now what we and the industry are facing is that the party is over," he said. "Basically China has a lot of the same issues that all developing countries have when they become developed."

"What you are moving into is an era for higher prices," he said, adding that the Foxconn effect was the "natural evolution" of a country developing and part of "a greater movement of prices going up", including commodities prices and labour costs.

"The ultimate answer to all of this is consumer goods prices are going to get higher. On the other hand, retailers will have a hard time passing that on to consumers," he said.

U.S. BUSINESS TRENDING UP

The exporter, which supplies retailers such as Wal-Mart Inc (WMT.N) and Target (TGT.N), said it expected its U.S. business to trend up and did not see a double-dip in the U.S. economy as it had already emerged from recession.

Li & Fung gave a positive view for growth in 2010, helped by a strong recovery in the United States, which accounts for about 65 percent of its business and was expected to remain steady to slightly higher in the years ahead.

"If you look at the optimism and confidence of our customer base, its a complete change in a positive direction from last year, and in the last three to four months ... its been incrementally better every month," he said.

Commenting on areas that would see strong growth opportunities, Rockowitz said: "All areas have pretty big opportunities, including sourcing".

"For our sourcing business, growth is pretty established now for the next three to five years. Other businesses, like our beauty business, will be in a high growth position and are likely to grow much faster."

With $1 billion war chest for mergers and acquisitions, Li & Fung is aiming to expand its onshore businesses in the U.S. and Europe.

Li & Fung would look at acquiring footwear-, and health and beauty-related assets in Europe and in the U.S. and may consider acquiring food-related assets in future, Rockowitz said.

"This year will not disappoint shareholders at all from that point of view," he said, adding the company would announce its half-year results on Aug. 12 and would have other announcements to make at the same time.

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Ocean cargo/global logistics: FMC Scrutinizes Carrier Rates and Capacity

By Patrick Burnson, Executive Editor
June 01, 2010
As the Federal Maritime Commission ramps up its investigation of ocean carrier price-fixing, it is also keeping a vigilant watch on capacity and equipment shortages.
In a speech given before the Virginia Maritime Association last month, FMC commissioner Michael Khouri noted that U.S. exporters of agricultural products are particularly exercised about the impact of capacity limitation, equipment unavailability and rate increases on their ability to compete internationally.

“The capacity, equipment availability and rate increase issues and their impact on U.S. shippers are of great concern to the FMC,” said Khouri. “Last March, the Commissioners voted to initiate a Non-Adjudicatory Fact Finding Investigation into the current conditions concerning vessel and equipment availability in the U.S. export and import liner trades.”

Meanwhile, Khouri and his colleagues are concentrating on rate inflation too.

“Recent reports of increases in annual transpacific contract rates have heightened shipper concerns that these rate hikes are facilitated by carriers using, first, their legal authority to discuss voluntary general rate guidelines with, second, discussions to agree on capacity restriction,” he said. “The first discussion would be legal under the Shipping Act. The second discussions — if they occurred — would be outside of the Shipping Act purview and would therefore be a violation of the Sherman Act.”
While the FMC’s Fact Finding is not focused on the vessel operator’s antitrust immunity, the Commission is mindful of these concerns and plans to closely monitor the carriers’ collective activities. If there is any indication that capacity issues and higher freight rates are credibly linked to any improper use of antitrust immunity by foreign-flag or U.S. flag liner carriers, the Commission will take action, said Khouri. He said shippers may also see renewed attention by Congress and the Administration.